SRIDEVI, SNAKES GHOSTS SPOONS ETC

OF SRIDEVI ,SNAKES , GHOSTS,SPOONS ETC

Not surprisingly my article on YOU CAN BE A RAJA OF SPECTRUM OF THINKING elicited more than the usual share of brickbats. I am however happy that many organisations are inviting me to conduct workshops on CRITICAL THINKING .I accept the invitations with humility.
One statement by a reader who happens to be a 4 th year student in an IIT stumped me. The IIT student had taken to heart my statement that one should look for credible evidence before believing anything at all. He went on to add that in his village he had seen village ‘ doctors’ doing some magic and driving ‘ghosts’ out of the body of villagers. His contention was that since he had with his own eyes seen such acts can he rely on the ‘ evidence’ and consider himself a skeptical thinker? On the contrary this youngster maybe a gullible guy.
The details can be too long for this piece but I shall do no better than to list out CARL SAGTAN’S BALONEY DETECTION KIT .This gives a few tips on how to sift bull from genuine facts.

• Wherever possible there must be independent confirmation of the facts
o Encourage substantive debate on the evidence by knowledgeable proponents of all points of view.
o Arguments from authority carry little weight (in science there are no "authorities").
o Spin more than one hypothesis - don't simply run with the first idea that caught your fancy.
o Try not to get overly attached to a hypothesis just because it's yours.
o Quantify, wherever possible.
o If there is a chain of argument every link in the chain must work.
o "Occam's razor" - if there are two hypothesis that explain the data equally well choose the simpler.
o Ask whether the hypothesis can, at least in principle, be falsified (shown to be false by some unambiguous test). In other words, it is testable? Can others duplicate the experiment and get the same result?
Additional issues are
o Conduct control experiments - especially "double blind" experiments where the person taking measurements is not aware of the test and control subjects.
o Check for confounding factors - separate the variables.
I suggest to those who come across such acts involving magical ,Extra sensory powers etc to let a team of experts witness the performance in controlled conditions . In fact such claims have been tested and proven to be hoaxes .The classic case of Yuri Geller is one such. This man made a fortune by demonstrating his Extra sensory powers to bend a steel spoon. He became an international celebrity and was invited to many TV demonstrations . He made millions before some scientists decided to ask him to demonstrate his prowess in a lab. Geller failed and admitted that he was a hoax.Many such claims have been debunked
The materializing of vibhut,pendants, and gold chains by assorted godmen have also been proven to be hoaxes. Curiously many such god men claim that their acts are beyond science ! To my mind anybody who makes such a claim of being beyond science may in fact be a hoax. Matter cannot be created out of thin air no matter what realm you are in!.
In my article I had requested readers to solve a puzzle .To recap—a friend of yours tells you that if ever someone known to you is bit by a snake all you have to do to save his life is to call up or send an email to a certain guruji who will do some poojas and save your friend’s life .
Some readers wrote back giving a reference to a station master who did such superhuman feats. I am also aware of someone in Puri who is said to have ‘saved’ many lives. Well I have one explanation for this ‘ godly’ act. As is usually the case it is to the laws of probability that we turn for a scientific explanation. The fact is that very few snakes in India are poisonous .Often the victim may die or suffer seriously purely due to fear and shock---most people assume that ALL snakes are poisonous and therefore your friend has been bitten by a dangerous snake. It is entirely probable that the snake was in fact a benign one –however much he may hiss and appear slimy and dangerous. The telecall or email to the ‘ guru’ serves the purpose of shoring up the confidence of the snake bite victim and it is this that saves him. No magic no godly powers are involved! One can bet a hundred million that if ever the godman’s kin is bit by a cobra the man will rush to the nearest hospital.He will hardly send an email to himself!
Meanwhile stop seeing sundry bollywood movies that ascribe magical powers to snakes! Even if Sridevi is the heroine.
K.R.RAVI
WWW .KRRAVI.COM